A methodological proposal to evaluate the health hazard scenario from COVID-19 in Italy.

2019 Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) had a big impact in Italy, mainly concentrated in the northern part of the Country. All this was mainly due to similarities of this area with Wuhan in Hubei Province, according to geographical, environmental and socio-economic points of view. The basic hypothesis of this research was that the presence of atmospheric pollutants can generate stress on health conditions of the population and determine pre-conditions for the development of diseases of the respiratory system and complications related to them. In most cases the attention on environmental aspects is mainly concentrated on pollution, neglecting issues such as land management which, in some way, can contribute to reducing the impact of pollution. The reduction of land take and the decrease in the loss of ecosystem services can represent an important aspect in improving environmental quality. In order to integrate policies for environmental change and human health, the main factors analyzed in this paper can be summarized in environmental, climatic and land management. The main aim of this paper was to produce three different hazard scenarios respectively related to environmental, climatic and land management-related factors. A Spatial Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method has been applied over thirteen informative layers grouped in aggregation classes of environmental, climatic and land management. The results of the health hazard maps show a disparity in the distribution of territorial responses to the pandemic in Italy. The environmental components play an extremely relevant role in the definition of the red zones of hazard, with a consequent urgent need to renew sustainable development strategies. The comparison of hazard maps related to different scenarios provides decision makers with tools to orient policy choices with a different degree of priority according to a place-based approach. In particular, the geospatial representation of risks could be a tool for legitimizing the measures chosen by decision-makers, proposing a renewed approach that highlights and takes account of the differences between the spatial contexts to be considered - Regions, Provinces, Municipalities - also in terms of climatic and environmental variables.

Why Italy First? Health, Geographical and Planning aspects of the Covid-19 outbreak (preprint)

The Covid-19 has hit Italy in February 2020 after its outbreak in China at the beginning of January. But why Italy first among Western countries? What are the conditions that made Italy more vulnerable and the first target of such disease? What characteristics and what diffusion patterns could be highlighted and hypothesized, from the outbreak to the end of March 2020, after containment measures - including a national lock down – were introduced? In this paper we try to provide some answers to these questions, analyzing the issue from the medical, geographical and planning points of view. In particular, we started from a hypothesis of very similar economic, geographical, climatic and environmental conditions of the areas of Wuhan – in Hubei Province in China, the outbreak of the epidemics – and the Po Valley area – in Italy – where most cases and deaths were registered. Adopting an ecological approach, we compared the spatial distribution and pattern of Covid-19-related mortality in Italy with several geographical, environmental and socio-economic variables at Provincial level, analyzing them by means of spatial analytical techniques as LISA – Local Indicators of Spatial Association. Possible evidence relating Covid-19 cases and Nitrogen-related pollutants and land take arise, particularly in the Po Valley area.